Construction Schedule versus Various Constraints and Risks

Abstract

The organization and planning of construction works are difficult issues due to the complexity, numerous limitations, uncertainty and risks associated with them. Construction planning is usually based on deterministic data. However, numerous studies and analyses of real cases show that a different computational approach is needed—one based on probabilistic data. The computational algorithms of the Time Coupling Method make it possible to introduce probabilistic data generated in the Multivariate Method of Statistical Models (MMSM) and via standard deviations. As a result, a new methodology was created, the Probabilistic Time Coupling Method (PTCM), through which it is possible to obtain a very good forecast of the investment implementation time compared to its real time. The paper presents theoretical considerations, computational schemes and validation exercises of this new method—known as the PTCM. The computational results of the PTCM (with a mapping accuracy prediction of 99%) confirm the effectiveness of the method. The computational algorithms of the PTCM enable the creation of a computational application based on a well-known program, e.g., Microsoft Excel, thanks to which the method can be quickly disseminated in the planning environment and widely used.

Keywords

• scheduling
• risk
• construction time planning
• constrains
• probabilistic time coupling methods