Modeling the effect of global warming on the spread of vector borne infectious diseases

Abstract

Climate change, the primarily human-caused rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system, is referred to as global warming. In this paper a non-linar mathematical model is proposed and analysed to study the effect of global warming global warming temperature on the transmission dynamics of vector borne diseases. In modeling the process, the total host population is divided into subclasses of susceptible host and infective host; and the vector population is divided into subclasses of susceptible vector and infective vector. The model is analysed using the stability theory. The analysis of model shows that as the temperature due to global warming increases, the vector population as well as the infective host population is increased. The rise in Infective host population results in the fast spread of vector borne diseases.

Keywords

• host-vector transmission
• global warming
• carbon dioxide
• numerical simulation