Futuristic prediction of the lagoon coast shorelines using spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery

Abstract

The coast is an extremely dynamic ecosystem that is subject to anthropogenic factors and sea level rise. All of this heightens the worry because it combines the elements that produce storm surges and tropical storms, which raise the possibility of shoreline shift and subsequent coastal erosion. The coastal zone is a prime example of a crucial ecosystem that is also highly dynamic, with shorelines that grow and contract in response to human activity, storm surges, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. The shoreline that characterizes erosion and deposition is constantly changing, but accurate monitoring and mapping of these changes are made necessary by the ecosystem’s economic viability. In this study, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery was used to forecast the futuristic position of the Lagoon Barrier shoreline in Lagos state, Nigeria. The Digital Shoreline Analysis Software (DSAS) statistics of End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) were used to examine the shoreline projection. The study’s findings demonstrated that shorelines movements can be monitored using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery owing to its characteristics that helps in distinguishing water from land. The shoreline projection indicated that general erosion would occur in this area at a rate of 1.45 meters per year. Communities in Ojogun, Okun-Ibese, Makoko, and Mobido are likely to be at risk from this erosion. With regard to the sustainable management of coastal zones, this research initiates a new endeavour for legislators and town planners.

Keywords

• Coastal erosion
• Lagos
• remote sensing
• shoreline forecast
• Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)