Simulations at Czech poultry market

Abstract

This paper defines the possible scenarios of the development of the poultry market in the Czech Republic, in view of the trends in production, consumption and foreign trade. The individual scenarios are based upon the forecasts of selected factors that have a substantial impact on the poultry market and whose changes can be expected in the subsequent years with great likelihood. The article sets out and addresses various scenarios for the period of 2012–2014. The scenarios are based upon the partial equilibrium model of the poultry market, which has been derived on the basis of time series and panel data within the years 1995–2009. The conducted analysis clearly shows that changes in the prices of agricultural producers will have an effect on changes in the production of poultry meat, an increase in VAT through consumer prices will impact the rate of domestic consumption, as well as changes in disposable income. Similarly, a change in the exchange rate will have an effect on the amount of poultry imported into the Czech Republic.

Keywords

• simulations
• poultry meat
• chicken meat
• production
• consumption
• foreign trade