Construction and Validation of a Model for Predicting Impaired Fasting Glucose Based on More Than 4000 General Population

Abstract

Cuicui Wang,1,* Xu Zhang,2,* Chenwei Li,2 Na Li,3 Xueni Jia,1 Hui Zhao1 1Department of Health Examination Center, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of General Practice, Xi’an People’s Hospital (Xi’an Fourth Hospital), Xi’an, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Hui Zhao, Department of Health Examination Center, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, No. 467 Zhongshan Road, Shahekou District, Dalian, 116023, People’s Republic of China, Tel [phone], Email [email protected]: Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is associated with an increased risk of multiple diseases. Therefore, the early identification and intervention of IFG are particularly significant. Our study aims to construct and validate a clinical and laboratory-based nomogram (CLN) model for predicting IFG risk.Patients and Methods: This cross-sectional study collected information on health check-up subjects. Risk predictors were screened mainly by the LASSO regression analysis and were applied to construct the CLN model. Furthermore, we showed examples of applications. Then, the accuracy of the CLN model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values, and the calibration curve of the CLN model in the training set and validation set, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to estimate the level of clinical benefit. Furthermore, the performance of the CLN model was evaluated in the independent validation dataset.Results: In the model development dataset, 2340 subjects were randomly assigned to the training set (N = 1638) and validation set (N = 702). Six predictors significantly associated with IFG were screened and used in the construction of the CLN model, a subject was randomly selected, and the risk of developing IFG was predicted to be 83.6% by using the CLN model. The AUC values of the CLN model were 0.783 in the training set and 0.789 in the validation set. The calibration curve demonstrated good concordance. DCA showed that the CLN model has good clinical application. We further performed independent validation (N = 1875), showed an AUC of 0.801, with the good agreement and clinical diagnostic value.Conclusion: We developed and validated the CLN model that could predict the risk of IFG in the general population. It not only facilitates the diagnosis and treatment of IFG but also helps to reduce the medical and economic burdens of IFG-related diseases.Keywords: glucose metabolism, nomogram model, risk prediction, disease prevention

Keywords

• glucose metabolism
• nomogram model
• risk prediction
• disease prevention