Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment (Sep 2021)
Evolution of energy and metal demand driven by industrial revolutions and its trend analysis
Abstract
Industrial revolutions have a profound impact on energy and metal demand. Based on technological improvement, industrial transformation, and changes of energy and metal consumption in the United States, this paper identified the evolution characteristics of energy and metal demand driven by industrial revolutions, and analyzed the trends of energy and metal demand driven by the fourth industrial revolution which is happening currently. Results indicated that fossil fuels were the major energy sources which boosted up the past three industrial revolutions, whereas their consumption increased at a slowing pace as the economy was growing continually; after the third industrial revolution, the consumption of fossil fuels decoupled gradually with the economic growth. As the industrial structure transformed as the industrial revolutions went on, more and more metals were used in the industries, and the consumption of different metals showed different trends. In recent years, a new technological revolution has surged mainly driven by the overall application of new information technologies. The technological advance in information, new energies, new materials, etc., will speed up the industrial transformation and exert a deep effect on the demand of energy and metals. It can be inferred that the ratio of clean, non-polluting, renewable energy will rise while the ratio of fossil fuels will drop in the energy demand, and the demand of rare metals will perhaps enter a fast-growing period, while the demand of traditional bulk metals will fluctuate at mid-high levels. Following the new industrial revolution, China should adopt an energy transition strategy of developing low-carbon and free-carbon technologies simultaneously, reinforce the domestic and international metal supply system with the aim of enhancing global governance capability, strengthen the deep development of rich rare metals and broaden the overseas supply channels of scare rare metals.
