Comparing the efficiency and robustness of state-of-the-art experimental designs for stated choice modeling: A simulation analysis

Abstract

Among the ways to construct experimental designs having been proposed, orthogonal design, uniform design, and D-efficient design are state-of-the-art methods. This article provides detailed comparisons on the efficiency and robustness among these methods with three case studies in multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models. ND-error values and the departures of D-errors corresponding to misspecification of prior information are used as measurements of design efficiency and design robustness, respectively. Design methods are described, and designs with various numbers of runs are constructed. The results indicate that (a) when parameter priors are available, D-efficient design method outperforms the other two methods, in terms of design efficiency, while uniform design and orthogonal design methods are comparable with each other; (b) there will be efficiency loss when D-efficient design that constructed for specific model is implemented in other ones; (c) all three methods have comparable robustness against misspecifications in parameter prior values; however, the effect of misspecification in prior distribution is massive when D-efficient design is used in mixed multinomial logit model; and (d) when parameter priors are unknown, uniform design is suggested to be used in the construction of experimental designs.