The Impact of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling on the Prediction of Mediterranean Cyclones: A Case Study of Medicane Ianos

Abstract

Intense cyclones with tropical-like characteristics (also known as “medicanes”) occasionally develop in the Mediterranean. They can cause extreme weather phenomena with catastrophic potential due to excessive precipitation, windstorms, and coastal flooding. In this work, the impact of air–sea interactions on the track and intensity of a Mediterranean cyclone is evaluated using an atmosphere-only configuration (WRF) and a two-way coupled ocean–atmosphere configuration (NEMO-WRF). As a case study, we focus on a medicane that evolved over the central Mediterranean basin during 15–20 September 2020 (named “Ianos”), causing severe damage to western Greece. The atmosphere-only simulations were carried out using constant initial SST throughout the model integration, while in the coupling setup, the SST was consistent with the air–sea fluxes and updated every 6 min by the ocean model. The results from the two modeling approaches highlight the importance of air–sea feedbacks for predicting Mediterranean cyclone intensity, along with the forecast initialization time.

Keywords

• ocean–atmosphere coupling
• Mediterranean cyclones
• medicane Ianos
• WRF
• NEMO
• coupled air–sea simulations