A deep learning-informed interpretation of why and when dose metrics outside the PTV can affect the risk of distant metastasis in SBRT NSCLC patients

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Recent papers suggested a correlation between the risk of distant metastasis (DM) and dose outside the PTV, though conclusions in different publications conflicted. This study resolves these conflicts and provides a compelling explanation of prognostic factors. Materials and methods A dataset of 478 NSCLC patients treated with SBRT (IMRT or VMAT) was analyzed. We developed a deep learning model for DM prediction and explainable AI was used to identify the most significant prognostic factors. Subsequently, the prognostic power of the extracted features and clinical details were analyzed using conventional statistical methods. Results Treatment technique, tumor features, and dosiomic features in a 3 cm wide ring around the PTV (PTV3cm) were identified as the strongest predictors of DM. The Hazard Ratio (HR) for Dmean,PTV3cm was significantly above 1 (p 1, p = 0.004) when analyzing only VMAT patients with small and spherical tumors (i.e., sphericity > 0.5). Conclusions The main reason for conflicting conclusions in previous papers was inconsistent datasets and insufficient consideration of confounding variables. No causal correlation between the risk of DM and dose outside the PTV was found. However, the mean dose to PTV3cm can be a significant predictor of DM in small spherical targets treated with VMAT, which might clinically imply considering larger PTV margins for smaller, more spherical tumors (e.g., if IGTV > 2 cm, then margin ≤ 7 mm, else margin > 7 mm).