Decision making under uncertainty in viticulture: a case study of Port wine

Abstract

In decision making under uncertainty individual decision makers (winegrowers) must choose one of a set number of decision alternatives with ample information about their outcomes but, most of the times, have not enough knowledge or data about the probabilities of the several states of nature. This paper focuses on the classical Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret and Realism criteria. The different approaches are analyzed and compared in a case study of Port wine production and selling. The computational involvedness and efficacy of the criterion are also presented. The paper finishes with the results of all observed criteria and alternatives in the circumstances of uncertainty.

Keywords

• decision making under uncertainty
• maximax
• maximin
• minimax and realism criterion
• Port Wine