Island change framework defines dominant modes of atoll island dynamics in response to environmental change

Abstract

Abstract Climatic change threatens the persistence of atoll islands and the cultural and ecosystem services they support. However, adaptation and ecosystem management are constrained by lack of knowledge of island-specific transformations. We present an empirically-based island change framework that characterises the physical trajectory of islands, based on high-resolution shoreline analysis on 509 atoll islands in the central Pacific over the past half-century. Using changes in island size and position we identify seven distinct styles of island transformation in the Pacific, including contraction (21.4%), stability (46.1%) and expansion (32.4%), and show that 40% of islands are currently mobile on reef surfaces. Results challenge the framing of islands as erosional, which misrepresents island behaviour and constrains understanding of island futures. The island change framework highlights a broader set of island-specific management considerations, and opportunities, that scale with the style and rate of island change, and provides an empirical basis to inform management.