Mexican Power System to 2050: Sustainability Assessment with an Energy Model

Abstract

Renewable energies have converted one of the most viable option to promote development and growth in a sustainable way. Mexico is considered as a diverse country, has abundant renewable energy resources that support the country's ambitions to decarbonize its power system. In particular, electricity generation in Mexico is dominated by natural gas, which has gradually replaced by fuel oil as the main fuel. At the end of 2017, 329,162 GWh of electricity were generated, of which 78.9% produced with conventional technologies (fossil fuel) and the remaining 21.1% with clean technologies. According to the Mexican National Inventory of Gas Emissions and Greenhouse Compounds, electricity production contributes with 25.9% of national emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels. Mexico has made commitments that it will face in order to move towards a low-carbon economy, both the inclusion of clean energy and the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. Due to the current situation, there is a need for a tool that allows flexible evaluation of the evolution of the Mexican Power System (MPS). In the present work, an MPS-energy model from 2017 to 2050 (SEN-50) is developed which was structured in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) program. The SEN-50 is a computational tool that allows evaluating scenarios considering energy policies, economic development, population growth, new technologies and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions impact. The SEN-50 model optimizes and estimates the growth in electricity demand by sector (residential, agricultural, industrial, services, commerce, and transportation) and shows a mix of technologies to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector to 50% by 2050 considering the potential of renewable resources, technological advance and future costs. The SEN-50 results it also shows that is possible the GHG reduction, renewables penetration and economic growth of power system for sustainable development in Mexico to 2050.