POPULATION MODEL THE RISK OF DEVELOPING ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION A RESULT OF CORRECTION MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES IN RURAL POPULATION OF KRASNODARSKI KRAI

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic significance of the effect of the correction of modifiable risk factors (RF), cardio-vascular diseases (CVD) in the development of arterial hypertension (AH) using the methods of mathematical modeling.Materials and methods. Surveyed population sample (2,189 people) of the adult population of rural areas of Krasnodar region (54.0 % women and 46.0 % men), mean age 47,72 ± 16,6 years (men – 46,27 ± 15,8 years, women – 48,95 ± 17,2 years). The study included patients with cardiovascular RF with the response 80, 1 % (n = 1006 people, of whom 43.2 % men and 48.3 % women, mean age 58,47 ± 13,7 years), who were re-examined every 3 years. Evaluation of anthropometric, clinical, laboratory, socio – demographic data. In order to correct cardiovascular RF, conducted in-depth preventive counseling (PC), individual and group. Statistical processing of the materials carried out using Statistica 6.10.1 and SPSS programs. Conducted a multivariate regression analysis of the proportional hazards (Cox model). Data are presented as M ± SD.Results of the study. Hypertension (AH) significantly more often associated with 3 RF : smoking, unhealthy diet (UD) and obesity. The predicted risk of developing hypertension over a lifetime increases with age and was significantly higher in smoking patients, patients with a poor diet, and obese individuals. After PC among smokers the predicted risk of developing AH decreased by 13.0 %; a UD by 7.0 %; obesity is 7 %. The most common combination of RF associated with the development of AH: UD + (hypercholesterolemia) HC + smoking – 88.3 %; UD + HC – 74.6 %, UD + obese – 53.6 %.Conclusion. The predicted risk of developing AH in their lifetime increased with age and was significantly higher in men: smoking, with UD, obesity. The effectiveness of preventive measures will significantly reduce the risk of developing AH.

Keywords

• arterial hypertension
• risk factors
• prevention counseling