Multiparametric Optimization of Complex System Management Scenarios Based on Simulation Models

Abstract

This work is devoted to the development of a multiparametric optimization module for a digital management decision support tool based on simulation models. It is noted that the optimization of simulation models of complex socioeconomic and sociotechnical systems involves the generation of multiple scenarios of system development, their calculation, and further comparison, which imposes additional requirements on the optimization algorithms used. Moreover, complex socioeconomic and sociotechnical systems are characterized by a multiplicity of goals, which leads to multiparametric optimization.  The result of the work is the algorithm for solving the problem of optimization of multiparametric scenario calculations using the example of a two-parameter optimization problem. The scope of the calculation optimization problem is to form the optimal set of scenarios that will ensure satisfactory computing time and, at the same time, give a representative scenario calculation result. Thus, the contribution of the current research is to formalize the processes of optimizing the parameters of simulation models of complex systems. In the course of the study, existing approaches to process optimization are considered. Based on the analysis of existing approaches to the formation of an optimal set of scenarios, ways to improve the algorithm type using approaches to scenario reduction or the introduction of genetic algorithms for the formation of an optimal set of scenarios are proposed. This work is carried out within a project to develop a digital tool to support managerial decision-making in sociotechnical and socioeconomic systems.

Keywords

• multiparametric optimization
• scenario calculation
• simulation modelling
• stochastic programming