Assessing glacier mass balance variations and climate drivers of Shisper and Muchuhar glaciers in the Karakoram region, Pakistan: a remote sensing and GIS approach

Abstract

Glaciers in the Karakoram region of Pakistan are crucial water sources for downstream communities, supporting irrigation and power generation. Global warming has led to significant glacier mass loss and size reduction, posing risks to ecology, climate, and water resources. Understanding Glacier Mass Balance (GMB) is essential for climate change insights and predicting future trends, mainly due to limited long-term GMB and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) data from the Karakoram region. We employed hypsometrically controlled methods, Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR) and Accumulation Area Balance Ratio (AABR) to fill this gap. AAR values ranged from 0.4 to 0.8 at 0.5 intervals, and AABR from 0.9 to 2.2 at 0.01 intervals. Findings indicate that Shisper Glacier had a negative mass balance of –1.0 m/y w.e., with the area below ELAs expanding by 1.72 km². Muchuhar Glacier showed a negative mass balance of -0.05 m/y w.e., with the area below ELAs decreasing to 0.96 km². Surface temperature trends indicate 6.44°C in 2023, highlighting a warming trend. Rising average air temperature (Tavg) is the significant factor influencing ELAs (26% and 72%, respectively), followed by average precipitation (Pavg) at 20% and 26%. These findings highlight the critical role of temperature and precipitation in glacier mass balance.

Keywords

• Glacier mass balance (GMB)
• ELA
• AAR
• AABR
• elevation change
• surface temperature