Methodological aspects of the analysis of seasonal labour market changes based on artificial intelligence technologies

Abstract

In the context of the world economy globalization, simultaneous increase in flexibility and volatility of the labour market, structural and demographic shifts, special attention should be paid to the employers' risk reduction associated with seasonal labour supply fluctuations. In the economic literature, the analysis of seasonality in the labor market is considered in terms of choosing the optimal time to apply for a job by job seekers However, the problem of optimal timing of recruitment by organizations remains poorly disclosed. The objective of this study is to forecast changes in labor supply at the labor market of Belarus, taking into account intra-annual seasonal fluctuations and occupation. In order to achieve the set goal the following tasks have been solved: search, analysis and selection of the sources of information about condition and dynamics of labour force supply in the labour market of Belarus; collection, purification, and analysis of statistical information about job seekers in Belarus; selection of the method for seasonal labour market analysis and construction of the seasonal wave, determination of the equations of trend; analysis of the obtained results. General scientific, economic method of analysis, method of grouping and graphical representations were used in the research. In the course of the research the authors built seasonal waves and obtained the equations of trends, which allow to make forecasts of labour force activity in the labour market of the Republic of Belarus in accordance with the type of activity. The research will allow the employers to: effectively develop the recruitment strategy; minimize the recruitment budget; choose the month when the job vacancy announcement will be submitted.

Keywords

• labor market analysis
• labor supply
• seasonal fluctuations
• market trend forecasting
• construction of seasonal wave