Carbon Neutral Roadmap of Commercial Building Operations by Mid-Century: Lessons from China

Abstract

Carbon neutrality has positive impacts on people, nature and the economy, and buildings represent the “last mile” sector in the transition to carbon neutrality. Carbon neutrality is characterized by the decarbonization of operations and maintenance, in addition to zero emissions in electricity and other industry sectors. Taking China’s commercial buildings as an example, this study is the first to perform an extensive data analysis for a step-wise carbon neutral roadmap of building operations via the analysis of a dynamic emission scenario. The results reveal that the carbon emissions abatement of commercial building operations from 2001 to 2018 was 1460.85 (±574.61) mega-tons of carbon dioxide (Mt CO2). The carbon emissions of commercial building operations will peak in the year 2039 (±5) at 1364.31 (±258.70) Mt, with emission factors and energy intensity being the main factors influencing the carbon peak. To move toward carbon neutral status, an additional 169.73 Mt CO2 needs to be cut by 2060, and the low emission path toward carbon neutrality will lead to the realization of the carbon peak of commercial buildings in 2024, with total emissions of 921.71 Mt. It is believed that cutting emissions from the operation of buildings in China will require a multi-sectoral synergistic strategy. It is suggested that government, residents, enterprises, and other stakeholders must better appreciate the challenges to achieve a substantial carbon reduction and the need for urgent action in the building sector in order to achieve carbon neutrality.

Keywords

• commercial building
• emission abatement
• emission peak
• carbon neutral strategy
• dynamic scenario analysis