مجله آب و خاک (Sep 2016)
Development of a Disaggregation Framework toward the Estimation of Subdaily Reference Evapotranspiration: 2- Estimation of Subdaily Reference Evapotranspiration Using Disaggregated Weather Data
Abstract
Introduction: Subdaily estimates of reference evapotranspiration (ET o) are needed in many applications such as dynamic agro-hydrological modeling. However, in many regions, the lack of subdaily weather data availability has hampered the efforts to quantify the subdaily ET o. In the first presented paper, a physically based framework was developed to desegregate daily weather data needed for estimation of subdaily reference ET o, including air temperature, wind speed, dew point, actual vapour pressure, relative humidity, and solar radiation. The main purpose of this study was to estimate the subdaily ETo using disaggregated daily data derived from developed disaggregation framework in the first presented paper. Materials and Methods: Subdaily ET o estimates were made, using ASCE and FAO-56 Penman–Monteith models (ASCE-PM and FAO56-PM, respectively) and subdaily weather data derived from the developed daily-to-subdaily weather data disaggregation framework. To this end, long-term daily weather data got from Abadan (59 years) and Ahvaz (50 years) synoptic weather stations were collected. Sensitivity analysis of Penman–Monteith model to the different meteorological variables (including, daily air temperature, wind speed at 2 m height, actual vapor pressure, and solar radiation) was carried out, using partial derivatives of Penman–Monteith equation. The capability of the two models for retrieving the daily ETo was evaluated, using root mean square error RMSE (mm), the mean error ME (mm), the mean absolute error ME (mm), Pearson correlation coefficient r (-), and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient EF (-). Different contributions to the overall error were decomposed using a regression-based method. Results and Discussion: The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the daily air temperature and the actual vapor pressure are the most significant meteorological variables, which affect the ETo estimates. In contrast, low sensitivity coefficients got for wind speed and the solar radiation. The similar patterns of ETo sensitivity coefficient to the air temperature ( ) and the air temperature (TA) showed that the extent of the seasonal variation of was mainly determined by the TA. Results showed a good agreement between daily and 24h sum of subdaily ETo derived from ASCE-PM (with an EF of 0.990 to 0.994) and FAO56-PM (with an EF of 0.992 to 0.995) models. The results showed a good generalization capability of the disaggregation models to estimate the subdaily ETo for the validation data set (Ahvaz). The 24h sum of subdaily ETo derived from both models underestimated and overestimated the daily ETo in calibration (Abadan) and validation (Ahvaz) data sets, respectively. In case of both models, the daily values of aerodynamic component of ETo were reproduced more efficiently, compared to radiation part. In case of the FAO56-PM model, the goodness of agreement between 24h sum of subdaily and daily values of aerodynamic part of the ETo showed a low sensitivity to variation of the time scale of weather data. With the increase of the time scale of the subdaily weather data, the ability of both models in retrieving the radiation component of the daily ETo was improved. Generally, there was no apparent relationship between the efficiency of the ASCE-PM and FAO56-PM models for retrieving the daily ETo and the time scale of weather data. Results showed that adoption of a smaller time step does not always leads to an improvement in the agreement between 24h sum of subdaily and daily values of ETo. For most of the studied subdaily time scales (1 to 360 min), the FAO56-PM model had better performance in retrieving the daily ETo, compared to the ASCE-PM model. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the developed disagregation framework was able to estimate the subdaily ET o. In this study, the promising results got in retrieving the daily ETo can be attributed mainly to the high sensitivity of ETo to the air temperature and actual vapor pressure (which were desegregated with a reasonable accuracy) and low sensitivity to the wind speed (which were desegregated with a low accuracy) and the solar radiation (which were disaggregated with a reasonable accuracy). The main reason for the absence of an apparent relationship apparent relationship between the efficiency of the ASCE-PM and FAO56-PM models for retrieving the daily ETo and the time scale of weather data can be attributed to adopted nighttime and daytime criteria in both models which is highly affected by time-scale of weather data and the estimated net long wave radiation.
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