Variations in the relative age effect with age and sex, and over time-Elite-level data from international soccer world cups.

Abstract

The relative age effect (RAE) is a statistical bias observed across sport contexts and consists of a systematic skewness in birth date distribution within an annual-age cohort. In soccer, January 1st is the common cut-off date when categorizing players in competitions according to their chronological age, which potentially disadvantages those within the cohort who were born later in the year. Thus, relatively older soccer players in their cohort can be favored in talent identification, selection, and development. The aim of the current study was to investigate the variations in RAE in male and female international youth world-cup tournaments (U17 and U20) in the period from 1997-2019 and in international senior world-cup-tournaments from 2006-2019. A total of 20,401 soccer players participating in 47 different tournaments were analyzed. The birthdate distributions were categorized into four quartiles (January-March, Q1; April-June, Q2; July-September, Q3; October-December, Q4) and compared to a uniform distribution using Chi-square analysis with Cramer's V (Vc) as a measure of effect size. Based on the existing data concerning RAE in elite junior and senior soccer, it was hypothesized that: (I) the RAE is present in youth soccer world cup tournaments but is stronger in male players than in female players; (II) the younger the soccer players, the stronger the RAE; and (III) the RAE in world cup soccer tournaments has strengthened over time. All these hypotheses were supported by the data; novel findings included that the effect has now entered women's soccer, and in men's soccer it persists into senior world cup tournaments. Thus, a strong RAE bias occurs in selection among elite soccer players competing in international world cup tournaments.