Variability in the Occurrence of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean and Its Climatic and Hydrological Determinants

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to investigate the variability in annual counts and the northern extent of cyclones in the North Atlantic in the years 1970–2019. Cyclones were divided into tropical cyclones (TCs), called hurricanes in the Atlantic, and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), transformed from TCs. Linear regression methods and Pearson’s correlation coefficient were applied. The trend in numbers is upward for both types of cyclones. The maximum annual northern extent of TCs shows a decreasing trend, while that of ETCs is clearly increasing. Hurricane numbers show a moderate positive correlation (correlation coefficient 0.31) with the annual Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and a negative correlation (−0.34) with the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. For the SOI in the months of the second half of the year, there is a strong correlation (up to 0.51) with the number of TCs in September–October. The highest correlation (0.65) is observed between the number of TCs and the annual Atlantic Multi-decadal Index (AMO). The number of TCs have been shown to correlate positively with the water temperature of the North Atlantic and western Pacific, and negatively with the eastern Pacific Ocean. A significant relationship has also been recorded between SST and the maximum annual extent of extratropical cyclones to the north and east (correlation coefficient of 0.4 to 0.6).

Keywords

• hurricanes
• extratropical cyclones
• North Atlantic
• NAO
• ENSO
• sea surface temperature