Mathematics (Jun 2021)

Adaptive Online Learning for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

  • Weijia Shao,
  • Lukas Friedemann Radke,
  • Fikret Sivrikaya,
  • Sahin Albayrak

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/math9131523
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 9, no. 13
p. 1523

Abstract

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This paper addresses the problem of predicting time series data using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in an online manner. Existing algorithms require model selection, which is time consuming and unsuitable for the setting of online learning. Using adaptive online learning techniques, we develop algorithms for fitting ARIMA models without hyperparameters. The regret analysis and experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that the performance of the proposed algorithms can be guaranteed in both theory and practice.

Keywords