A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19

Abstract

Abstract The understanding of the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavior is an important and essential point to control infectious. Disease outbreak can be influenced by social distancing and vaccination. In this study, we introduce two compartmental models to derive the epidemic curve and analyze the individual’s behavior in spreading and controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. The first model includes Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Hospitalized, Recovered and Death compartments and in the second model, we added a new compartment namely, semi-susceptible individuals that are assumed to be more immune than the susceptible. A comparison of the two models shows that the second model provides a better fit to the daily infected cases from Egypt, Belgium, Japan, Nigeria, Italy, and Germany released by WHO. Finally, we added a vaccinated term to the model to predict how vaccination could control the epidemic. The model was applied on the record data from WHO.