Demographic potential of the Nišava district

Abstract

This paper analyzes the demographic potential of the Nišava District at the administrative level of municipality. It is shown through the analysis of the selected indicators: numerical trends and age structure of the population. The main demographic processes that characterize the observed district are the overall depopulation (the decrease of the total population) and the aging of the population. Due to this, the change in the population numbers according to previous censuses has been investigated in order to determine its intensity in different periods. Some population characteristics such as the age of the population, the aging index, the age coefficient, the young population contingent (0-19) and the old population continent (60 and over) as well as the fertile and labor contingent have been used to represent the age structure. The changes in the educational structure are considered in interaction with the processes of depopulation and demographic aging. This has been an attempt to determine the degree of correlation between demographic processes and the education level of the population. The results of the analysis of the demographic potential point to spatial disparity of the Nišava District. Unfavorable demographic processes, extreme depopulation and aging of the population of this district have had a large influence on the weakening of the demographic basis and the decrease in the overall potential of the observed district. The mutual dependence of the process of depopulation and pronounced changes in the age structure towards ever increasing aging of the population has created a vicious cycle which leads to unfavorable and unstoppable demographic changes in this area.

Keywords

• depopulation
• aging of the population
• age structure
• educational structure
• Nišava Region