ეკონომიკური პროფილი (Dec 2020)
საქართველოს მაკროეკონომიკური გამოწვევები მსოფლიო პანდემიის ფონზე
Abstract
The presented paper analyzes the economic situation in Georgia against the background of the world pandemic. The relevant statistical data on the high tax balance and dollarization ratio of Georgia are presented in detail. The article notes that Georgia did not have a good starting economic rate even before the Coronavirus pandemic, which creates a precondition for future problems. The paper focuses on the need for rapid economic reforms. The paper presents conclusions and recommendations on the measures to be taken by the government in the near future. If the recommendations presented by the central government in the near future do not take into account the pandemic in the country, the socio-economic situation will become even more complicated, which will pose a significant threat to political stability as a whole. An analysis of the economic situation in Georgia prior to the spread of the coronavirus clearly demonstrates the need for a rapid, time-bound, national economic policy. This reforms should be provide to get healthy the situation, which caused coronavirus pandemic and develop of the economy from 2021. Georgia has all the necessary resources (intellectual, natural, strategic location) to deal with the negative consequences of the global pandemic and to take effective steps compared to other countries to ensure the stabilization of the economy. Therefore, in order to improve the overall macroeconomic situation of the country, appropriate reforms should be carried out quickly. When carrying out reforms, it should be taking into account that an important impediment to improving the country's economic situation will be the fact that significant problems have accumulated in the modern global world in the following areas, such as: international rating companies, international financial institutions and international lobbying institutions. Despite the effective steps taken to solve the problem, the situation in this direction is entering in deeper crisis, and overall it is hindering the real improvement of the economic situation of countries (especially developing countries). it is necessary that The Government of Georgia take into account the significant problems existing in the above-mentioned international organizations when pursuing national economic policy. Although various international financial institutions, compared to other countries, make positive forecasts about the economic situation in Georgia, it still does not entitle us to calm down. It is well known that the governments and central banks of almost every country in the world have allocated colossal sums of money to alleviate the difficult economic situation caused by the coronavirus. Complicating the situation is the fact that it is still unknown whether there will be a second wave of virus outbreaks. In the world is an extraordinary and difficult to predict situation in this regard. International organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Asian Bank, the World Trade Organization, etc., can not forecast the current situation and can not offer relevant recommendations to countries, while such recommendations are vital, especially developing countries. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the Nobel Prize winners in the field of economics do not make any predictions about the extraordinary situation and do not offer appropriate action plans to the governments of the countries of the world. Therefore it is still unknown in the near future what socio-economic problems will be in countries the light of this pandemic. Given the complex and unpredictable economic situation in the world, the Government of Georgia needs to prepare a short-term and long-term strategic development plan based on local resources (National Academy of Sciences, higher education institutions, national research institutions, etc.) Will facilitate handling. According to this strategic plan, Georgia should avoid the expected risks as much as possible.
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