Effect of Transmission and Vaccination on Time to Dominance of Emerging Viral Strains: A Simulation-Based Study

Abstract

We studied the effect of transmissibility and vaccination on the time required for an emerging strain of an existing virus to dominate in the infected population using a simulation-based experiment. The emergent strain is assumed to be completely resistant to the available vaccine. A stochastic version of a modified SIR model for emerging viral strains was developed to simulate surveillance data for infections. The proportion of emergent viral strain infections among the infected was modeled using a logistic curve and the time to dominance (TTD) was recorded for each simulation. A factorial experiment was implemented to compare the TTD values for different transmissibility coefficients, vaccination rates, and initial vaccination coverage. We discovered a non-linear relationship between TTD and the relative transmissibility of the emergent strain for populations with low vaccination coverage. Furthermore, higher vaccination coverage and high vaccination rates in the population yielded significantly lower TTD values. Vaccinating susceptible individuals against the current strain increases the susceptible pool of the emergent virus, which leads to the emergent strain spreading faster and requiring less time to dominate the infected population.

Keywords

• infectious disease modeling
• emergent viruses
• epidemic modeling
• stochastic models
• simulation-based experiments
• vaccination