Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Identifying climate change hotspot regions is critical for planning effective mitigation and adaptation activities. We use standard Euclidean distance (SED) to calculate integrated changes in precipitation and temperature means, interannual variability, and extremes between different future warming levels and a baseline period (1995–2014) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensemble. We find consistent hotspots in the Amazon, central and western Africa, Indonesia and the Tibetan Plateau at warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C for all scenarios explored; the Arctic, Central America and southern Africa emerge as hotspots at 4°C warming and at the end of the 21st century under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. CMIP6 models show higher SED values than CMIP5, suggesting stronger aggregated effects of climate change under the new scenarios. Hotspot time of emergence (TOE) is further investigated; TOE is defined as the year when the climate change signal first exceeds the noise of natural variability in 21st century projections. The results indicate that TOEs for warming would occur over all primary hotspots, with the earliest occurring in the Arctic and Indonesia. For precipitation, TOEs occur before 2100 in the Arctic, the Tibetan Plateau and Central America. Results using a geographical detector model show that patterns of SED are shaped by extreme hot and dry occurrences at low‐to‐medium warming, while precipitation and temperature means and extreme precipitation occurrences are the dominant influences under the high emission scenario and at high warming levels.

Keywords

• CMIP6
• climate change
• hotspot
• signal‐to‐noise ratio
• warming level