Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in a changing climate: a review

Abstract

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one of the most well-documented areas of hydrometeorology; however, the processes associated with ISMR are not well understood. This attributes to the complexities associated with ISMR at multiple spatio-temporal scales. This further results in inconsistencies across the literature to assess the impacts of global warming on the monsoon, though this has huge relevance as a huge population of South Asia is dependent on the same. Here, we review and assess the existing literature on the Indian monsoon, its variability, and its trajectory in a warming scenario. We further synthesize the literature on its impacts on the hydrology of major river basins in South Asia. We also identify a few research questions, addressing which will add value to the understanding of the Indian monsoon and the associated water cycle. We have highlighted that there is a significant lack of understanding of how different large-scale and regional factors affect ISMR at different timescales. These impacts, in turn, get translated into hydrology and water sector in India. There is a need to know where we stand to combat the impacts of climate change on ISMR, which can be translated to adaptation by policy-making processes and water management practices in India. HIGHLIGHTS The study reviews the literature regarding the Indian monsoon in changing climate over time.; Studies regarding the changing characteristics and the factors affecting the Indian monsoon have been reviewed.; Few research questions are discussed that can be addressed to improve the understanding of the Indian monsoon.; Study can be a guideline for future research regarding the simulation and prediction/projection of the Indian monsoon.;

Keywords

• climate change, hydrologyl, indian summer monsoon rainfall, spatio-temporal variability