Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Lycoriella</i> Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance
Roberta Marques,
Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte,
Adriane da Fonseca Duarte,
Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger,
Uemmerson Silva da Cunha,
Luis Osorio-Olvera,
Rusby G. Contreras-Díaz,
Daniel Jiménez-García
Affiliations
Roberta Marques
Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas 13083-970, Brazil
Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte
Departamento de Fitossanidade, Faculdade de Agronomia Eliseu Maciel, Campus Capão do Leão, Universidade Federal de Pelotas—UFPel, Capão do Leão 96160-000, Brazil
Adriane da Fonseca Duarte
Departamento de Fitossanidade, Faculdade de Agronomia Eliseu Maciel, Campus Capão do Leão, Universidade Federal de Pelotas—UFPel, Capão do Leão 96160-000, Brazil
Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger
Laboratório de Ecologia de Parasitos e Vetores, Departamento de Microbiologia e Parasitologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas 96010-610, Brazil
Uemmerson Silva da Cunha
Departamento de Fitossanidade, Faculdade de Agronomia Eliseu Maciel, Campus Capão do Leão, Universidade Federal de Pelotas—UFPel, Capão do Leão 96160-000, Brazil
Luis Osorio-Olvera
Departamento de Ecología de la Biodiversidad, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico
Rusby G. Contreras-Díaz
Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico
Daniel Jiménez-García
Laboratorio de Biodiversidad, Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente, Instituto de Ciencias de la Benemérita, Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla 72410, Mexico
Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.
