The quantitation of the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on water demand through GEE modeling, a case study in Iran

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the environment, social, and economic norms. Of vital environmental resources, water supplies experienced a significant pressure due to the increasing demand for sanitation and hygiene purposes. The Covid-19 pandemic provide an opportunity to rethink on policies taken for water resources management, especially in developing countries. This study provided a quantitative view on the significance of Covid-19 pandemic on water demand using a statistical model. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on residential, commercial, and industrial water consumption in five major cities in Iran i.e. Neyshabur, Sabzevar, Quchan, Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Gonabad were analyzed. The data on water consumption collected in a four years period from March 2018–2019, and March 2020–2022 during the pandemic in Iran. Generalized estimation equations (GEE) were applied to model the water consumption as a function of the Covid-19, atmospheric temperature, population, and precipitation. The per capita water consumption was in the range of 184.4 L/d - 142.3 L/d in the studied cities. A 10–15% increase in water demand was observed during the pandemic compared to two earlier years. Moreover, the residential sector experienced the highest growth in water demand during the pandemic. The water demand had a surge during the first year of Covid-19 pandemic. The GEE model indicated the per capita water consumption increased by 2.77 L/d during the pandemic which was equal to 0.02 L/d per case of a patient. The present study disclosed a significant growth in water demand during the Covid-19 pandemic particularly in residential sector.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Pandemic
• per capita water consumption
• GEE modeling