Banking Industry's Future ahead with Scenario-based Planning Approach

Abstract

In This article by using Foresight methods as cross impact balance and the scenario planning to identify strategic factors affecting the banking industry discussed the future And then the major scenarios ahead the banking industry are compiled and analyzed. Initial research data have been analyzed by using the mic mac software. The results obtained from the use of CIB showed that 10 key operating profitability, resources and expenditures, government and the economy, interest and reserve requirements, payments, capital adequacy, sanctions, laws and regulations, duty facilities and environment of economic uncertainty among identified factors will have the greatest impact and influence on the future of the banking industry, these basic factors used in scenario planning. In order to scenario planning at this stage of experts were consulted and ultimately the sum of 31 possible positions for 10 factors were defined. Possible position for any of a variety of situations covered unfavorable to favorable. An analysis performed by the scenario wizard software, 5 strong scenarios and 9 believable scenarios of based on 31 possible positions on the 10 key driving was extracted.

Keywords

• banking industry
• future study
• scenario planning
• cross -impact analysis