Fire Behavior Prediction in Larch Forests of the Kazakhstan Altai

Abstract

This paper considers automated fire behavior prediction in larch forests of the Kazakhstan Altai based on large-scale vegetation fuel maps (VF maps). First-time pyrological description of the Kazakhstan Altai larch forests was performed, thus facilitating VF maps’ creation using forest inventory information in a geographical information system (GIS). Based on the methodological developments of the Sukachev Institute of Forest, types of primary fire carriers were identified for larch forests and other categories of sites. On the example of the Markakol Forestry area (Kazakhstan Altai), our fire growth simulation modeling system was adapted for predicting fire behavior in the mountain terrain. The developed fire simulation software helped not only identify inventory plots ready to burn, but also assess spread rate for fire parts dependent upon weather conditions, predict fire intensity and fire development, and calculate the required manpower and resources for fire suppression. The effects of each specific fire were predicted in terms of percentage of tree mortality dependent upon fire intensity, tree species, and average tree diameter. Examples of VF maps were made for different periods of a fire season and analysis was given to behavior of a simulated surface fire in the Markakol Forestry area.

Keywords

• fire hazard
• fire simulation software
• fuel mapping
• vegetation fuel classification