Development of a three-dimensional variational assimilation system for lidar profile data based on a size-resolved aerosol model in WRF–Chem model v3.9.1 and its application in PM_2.5 forecasts across China

Abstract

The authors developed a three-dimensional variational (3-DVAR) aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) and aerosol mass concentration (AMC) data assimilation (DA) system for aerosol variables in the Weather Research and Forecasting–Chemistry (WRF–Chem) model with the WRF–Chem using the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) scheme. They establish an AEC observation operator and its corresponding adjoint based on the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) equation and investigate the use of lidar AEC and surface AMC DA to forecast mass concentration (MC) profiles of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µm) across China. Two sets of data were assimilated: AEC profiles captured by five conventional Mie scattering lidars (positioned in Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Xuzhou, and Wuhu) and PM2.5 and PM10 MC data obtained from over 1500 ground environmental monitoring stations across China. Three DA experiments (i.e., a PM2.5 (PM10) DA experiment, a lidar AEC DA experiment, and a simultaneous PM2.5 (PM10) and lidar AEC DA experiment) with a 12 h assimilation period and a 24 h forecast period were conducted. The PM2.5 (PM10) DA reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) of the surface PM2.5 MC in the initial field of the model by 38.6 µg m−3 (64.8 %). When lidar AEC data were assimilated, this reduction was 10.5 µg m−3 (17.6 %), and a 38.4 µg m−3 (64.4 %) reduction occurred when the two data sets were assimilated simultaneously, although only five lidars were available within the simulation region (approximately 2.33 million km2 in size). The RMSEs of the forecasted surface PM2.5 MC 24 h after the DA period in the three DA experiments were reduced by 6.1 µg m−3 (11.8 %), 1.5 µg m−3 (2.9 %), and 6.5 µg m−3 (12.6 %), respectively, indicating that the assimilation and hence the optimization of the initial field have a positive effect on the PM2.5 MC forecast performance over a period of 24 h after the DA period.