An Individualized Prognostic Model in Patients with Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Based on Serum Metabolomic Profiling
Jiayu Zhou,
Yishu Deng,
Yingying Huang,
Zhiyi Wang,
Zejiang Zhan,
Xun Cao,
Zhuochen Cai,
Ying Deng,
Lulu Zhang,
Haoyang Huang,
Chaofeng Li,
Xing Lv
Affiliations
Jiayu Zhou
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Yishu Deng
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Yingying Huang
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Zhiyi Wang
The First School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, No. 1023, South Shatai Road, Baiyun District, Guangzhou 510515, China
Zejiang Zhan
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Xun Cao
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Zhuochen Cai
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Ying Deng
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Lulu Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Haoyang Huang
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Chaofeng Li
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Xing Lv
State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China
Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the value of a serum metabolomics-based metabolic signature for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC) patients, thereby assisting clinical decisions. Methods: In this retrospective study, a total of 320 LA-NPC patients were randomly divided into a training set (ca. 70%; n = 224) and a validation set (ca. 30%; n = 96). Serum samples were analyzed using widely targeted metabolomics. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify candidate metabolites related to progression-free survival (PFS). Patients were categorized into high-risk and low-risk groups based on the median metabolic risk score (Met score), and the PFS difference between the two groups was compared using Kaplan–Meier curves. The predictive performance of the metabolic signature was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and a comprehensive nomogram was constructed using the Met score and other clinical factors. Results: Nine metabolites were screened to build the metabolic signature and generate the Met score, which effectively separated patients into low- and high-risk groups. The C-index in the training and validation sets was 0.71 and 0.73, respectively. The 5-year PFS was 53.7% (95% CI, 45.12–63.86) in the high-risk group and 83.0% (95%CI, 76.31–90.26) in the low-risk group. During the construction of the nomogram, Met score, clinical stage, pre-treatment EBV DNA level, and gender were identified as independent prognostic factors for PFS. The predictive performance of the comprehensive model was better than that of the traditional model. Conclusion: The metabolic signature developed through serum metabolomics is a reliable prognostic indicator of PFS in LA-NPC patients and has important clinical significance.