Analysis of Space Debris Orbit Prediction Using Angle and Laser Ranging Data from Two Tracking Sites under Limited Observation Environment

Abstract

The global electro-optical (EO) and laser tracking sensor network was considered to investigate improvements to orbit prediction (OP) accuracy of space debris by combining angle and laser ranging data. However, it is worth noting that weather, schedule and visibility constraints can frequently limit the operations of such sensors, which may not result in sufficient tracking data for accurate OP. In this study, several 1-day OP results for low Earth orbit (LEO) space debris targets were demonstrated under a limited observation environment to verify the OP accuracy through the combination of angle and laser ranging data from two sites. For orbit determination (OD) processes, it was considered to analyze the OP accuracy by one site providing both 2–day arc angle data and 1-day arc laser ranging data, while the other was limited to 1-day arc angle data. In addition, the initial ballistic coefficient ( B C ) application method was proposed and implemented for the improvement of OD/OP accuracy, which introduces the modified correction factor depending on the drag coefficient. In the cases of combining the angle and laser ranging data, the OP results show the 3D position difference values are below 100 m root mean square (RMS) with small position uncertainty. This value satisfies the target OP accuracy for conjunction assessments and blind laser ranging (about 50–100 m at 1000 km altitude). The initial B C application method also shows better OP accuracy than the method without the correction factor.

Keywords

• orbit prediction
• space debris
• electro-optical tracking sensor
• laser tracking sensor
• ballistic coefficient