The impact of oil revenues on some financial sustainability indicators: an applied study on the Iraqi economy for the period 2004-2021

Abstract

The study aimed to measure the impact of oil price fluctuations on some indicators of financial sustainability, as it is one of the most important components of financial sustainability in countries that are characterized by the abundance of that resource or countries that have been classified as rentier states, but excessive reliance on this wealth may make the country and its economy vulnerable to fluctuations. Severe external shocks due to fluctuations in oil prices and its connection to international markets. The study and analysis of oil revenues is of great importance in economic studies. This importance stems from the fact that oil revenues represent the lifeblood of the Iraqi economy, which depends almost entirely on them in forming the gross domestic product. It was based on The study based on a set of hypotheses, the most important of which is: Oil revenues can be relied upon to achieve financial sustainability in the Iraqi economy, as well as the existence of a statistically significant correlation between oil prices and financial sustainability indicators. Statistical programs (EViews, Excel) were used to reach the results. The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is that the oil revenues index relative to public revenues (X) has a direct impact on the government spending index relative to gross domestic product in the long term.

Keywords

• Oil prices, fiscal sustainability, oil revenues, public revenues, government spending.