PLoS ONE (Jan 2014)

Spatio-temporal trends and risk factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China.

  • Fenyang Tang,
  • Yuejia Cheng,
  • Changjun Bao,
  • Jianli Hu,
  • Wendong Liu,
  • Qi Liang,
  • Ying Wu,
  • Jessie Norris,
  • Zhihang Peng,
  • Rongbin Yu,
  • Hongbing Shen,
  • Feng Chen

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083487
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 9, no. 1
p. e83487

Abstract

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ObjectiveThis study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal trends of Shigella incidence rates in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China. It also intended to explore complex risk modes facilitating Shigella transmission.MethodsCounty-level incidence rates were obtained for analysis using geographic information system (GIS) tools. Trend surface and incidence maps were established to describe geographic distributions. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and autocorrelation analysis were used for detecting clusters. Based on the number of monthly Shigella cases, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model successfully established a time series model. A spatial correlation analysis and a case-control study were conducted to identify risk factors contributing to Shigella transmissions.ResultsThe far southwestern and northwestern areas of Jiangsu were the most infected. A cluster was detected in southwestern Jiangsu (LLR = 11674.74, PConclusionImprovement of sanitation and hygiene should be strengthened in economically developed counties, while access to a safe water supply in impoverished areas should be increased at the same time.