Cancer Management and Research (Mar 2020)
Novel Prognostic Nomograms for Predicting Early and Late Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy
Abstract
Wei Xu, Ruineng Li, Fei Liu Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital, The First Hospital Affiliated with Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410005, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Wei XuDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital, The First Hospital Affiliated with Hunan Normal University, No. 61 West Jiefang Road, Changsha 410005, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +8613873159491Fax +8673182278012Email [email protected]: Hepatectomy is the main curative method for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. Unfortunately, high recurrence rate after hepatectomy poses negative impact on the prognosis of patients. This study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms to predict early recurrence (ER) and late recurrence (LR) of HCC after curative hepatectomy.Patients and Methods: Total of 318 HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy from January 2012 to January 2018 were retrospectively recruited. Potential risk factors that were significant for predicting ER and LR in univariate analysis were selected for multivariate survival model analysis using the backward stepwise method. Risk factors identified in multivariate analysis were used to develop nomograms to predict ER and LR. The nomogram was internally validated using 2,000 bootstrap samples from 75% of the original data.Results: Among 318 patients, 164 showed postoperative recurrence, of which 140 and 24 had ER (≤ 2 years) and LR (> 2 years), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, Hong Kong Liver Cancer Stage, albumin-bilirubin, METAVIR fibrosis grade, and microvascular invasion were risk factors of ER for HCC after curative hepatectomy. The AUC of the ROC curve for ER in the development set (D-set) was 0.888 while that in the validation set (V-set) was 0.812. Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and glypican-3 (+) were risk factors for LR in HCC patients after curative hepatectomy. The AUC of the ROC curve for LR predictive nomogram that integrated all independent predictors was 0.831. The AUC of the ROC curve for LR in the D-set was 0.833, while that for LR in the V-set was 0.733. The C-index and AUC of ROC for the proposed nomograms were more satisfactory than three conventional HCC staging systems used in this study.Conclusion: We developed novel nomograms to predict ER and LR of HCC patients after curative hepatectomy for clinical use to individualize follow-up and therapeutic strategies.Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatectomy, risk factor, prognosis, nomogram
