Research on source term inversion and uncertainty analysis based on particle filter algorithm

Abstract

Considering the special circumstances after nuclear accidents, such as continuous change of source term release rate, limited monitoring data, and variable observed noise, a source term inversion method based on the Gaussian puff dispersion model and particle filter is proposed in this paper. When there are only two sets of effective monitoring data, these data, based on 20% monitoring relative error, superimpose monitoring noise caused by particulate deposition. A particle filter was used to invert the source term release rate from the monitoring data considering stable, linearly increasing, and sinusoidally changing release rates. The error in the results relative to the true value is about 5%, and the maximum error is less than 10%.

Keywords

• source term inversion
• particle filter
• gaussian puff dispersion model