Providing a Framework for Studying the Future Military-Defensive Wild Cards of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract

A wild card is a future development or event with a relatively low probability of occurrence but a likely high impact on the conduct of business. Surprise, there are huge costs for organizations, especially military-defense organizations. One of the main concerns of all military-security organizations, Escape from these surprises and minimize these costs by predicting them. The main research question is: How can the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran identify and manage military wild cards? In this research; it is said that officers and military experts are not able to see many wild cards, because of their daily routines and habits of the organization's current trends. Military organizations need different mechanisms to extract and anticipate wild cards in their field of work. This study suggests that to understand military wild cards in the country, we need to combine: Brainstorming, Delphi for civilians, Expert panels and Environmental scanning. The result of combining these methods is the pattern that can be used for this purpose. This template has been designed in 6 steps: detection, identification, adaptation, estimation, scenario planning, outcomes, and strategy presentation, design and implementation of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Keywords

• futures studies
• wild cards
• iran's military