TAKING A SNAPSHOT Discovering Escalation Prone Countries Through Structural Conditions and QCA

Abstract

This paper introduces a method of conflict escalation prediction based on long-term structural conditions, drawn from open sources, and QCA (Qualitative Comparative analysis). The combination of the two components offers a model of prediction, which is comparable to other more sophisticated and resourced systems. Moreover, it offers a more sensitive estimation of an escalation.

Keywords

• prediction
• conflict escalation
• structural conditions
• early warning
• csqca