Validation of a Prospective Urinalysis-Based Prediction Model for ICU Resources and Outcome of COVID-19 Disease: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Abstract

In COVID-19, guidelines recommend a urinalysis on hospital admission as SARS-CoV-2 renal tropism, post-mortem, was associated with disease severity and mortality. Following the hypothesis from our pilot study, we now validate an algorithm harnessing urinalysis to predict the outcome and the need for ICU resources on admission to hospital. Patients were screened for urinalysis, serum albumin (SA) and antithrombin III activity (AT-III) obtained prospectively on admission. The risk for an unfavorable course was categorized as (1) “low”, (2) “intermediate” or (3) “high”, depending on (1) normal urinalysis, (2) abnormal urinalysis with SA ≥ 2 g/dL and AT-III ≥ 70%, or (3) abnormal urinalysis with SA or AT-III abnormality. Time to ICU admission or death served as the primary endpoint. Among 223 screened patients, 145 were eligible for enrollment, 43 falling into the low, 84 intermediate, and 18 into high-risk categories. An abnormal urinalysis significantly elevated the risk for ICU admission or death (63.7% vs. 27.9%; HR 2.6; 95%-CI 1.4 to 4.9; p = 0.0020) and was 100% in the high-risk group. Having an abnormal urinalysis was associated with mortality, a need for mechanical ventilation, extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation or renal replacement therapy. In conclusion, our data confirm that COVID-19-associated urine abnormalities on admission predict disease aggravation and the need for ICU (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04347824).

Keywords

• COVID-19
• ICU resources
• risk stratification
• clinical outcomes
• preventive measures
• acute kidney injury