VAR Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

This article examines the effects of monetary transmission on real output and price level in Kyrgyzstan which is very important issue for central banks. We analyzed the relationships between the money supply, real output, price level, interest rate, credit and real exchange rate by using the vector autoregression approach (VAR) and monthly data for 2003-2011. As a result the interest rate channel remains weak, on the other hand it have been revealed that the credit channel has some affects to real output, the exchange rate channel affects the prices. Exchange rate channel remains still the most effective channel. Based on these results, it can be argued that government can use credit and interest rate channel in increasing real output, and the exchange rate channel in achieving price stability in Kyrgyzstan.

Keywords

• Monetary policy
• transmission mechanism
• vector autoregression
• Kyrgyzstan .