Future streamflow along the French part of the Meuse River – a closer look at uncertainties

Abstract

It is essential to assess the impact of future climate change on catchment hydrology in a rigorous manner, accounting for uncertainties. In this study, we assess the impact of climate change on the natural streamflow of the French part of the Meuse catchment. Climate projections from two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five General Circulation Model/Regional Climate Model (GCM/RCM) couples were retrieved to feed four hydrological models run with several parameter sets to assess future streamflow. A variance analysis tool was employed to partition the sources of uncertainty. Although an increase in air temperature is expected in the future, particularly with the RCP 8.5, the projected trend in precipitation remains uncertain. A slight increase in annual precipitation, an increase in winter precipitation and an uncertain signal for summer precipitation are anticipated. These developments will result in an increase in winter streamflow and an uncertain signal for summer streamflow, although these evolutions may not be homogeneous along the Meuse course. Regarding uncertainties, internal variability represents the greatest uncertainty in the near future, while climate models account for the highest uncertainty in the mid and far futures. The results were found to be comparable to those of the Francewide Explore2 project.

Keywords

• Climate change
• hydrological modelling
• uncertainty partitioning
• Meuse River
• Changement climatique 
• modélisation hydrologique