Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 in Enclosed Spaces

Abstract

SEIR models are typically conjured for populations in open environments; however, there seems to be a lack of these types of models that deal with infection rates amongst enclosed spaces. We have also seen certain age groups struggle to deal with COVID-19 more than others, and to this end, we have constructed an age-structured SEIR model that incorporates the Gammaitoni–Nucci model, which is used for infective material in an enclosed space with ventilation. We apply some sensitivity analysis to better understand which parameters have the biggest impact on overall infection rates, as well as create a realistic scenario in which we apply our model to see the comparison in sickness rates amongst four different age groups with different ventilation filtration systems (UVGI, HEPA) and differing quanta production rates.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Gammaitoni–Nucci
• SEIR
• applied modeling
• modeling for infectious disease spread
• COVID filtration