Covid-19, Dow Jones and equity market movement in ASEAN-5 countries: evidence from wavelet analyses

Abstract

This study gains insights into what drives the ASEAN-5 equity markets. Using several wavelet approaches, we examine the correlation between the ASEAN-5 equity markets with the daily new Covid-19 cases and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DowJones), the lead-lag relationships and level of disorder (or randomness) between the ASEAN-5 domestic equity markets and DowJones between February 15 to May 30, 2019 (pre-period) and February 15 to May 30, 2020 (during the pandemic period) respectively. The pandemic period is further divided into three different phases; the beginning (February), mid (March and April), and end (May) of the period. This study finds that Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore equity markets react to Covid-19 cases at the beginning of the pandemic phase, whereas, Thailand and the Philippines showed coherency during the mid-period. As the pandemic progresses (mid-period), all ASEAN-5 equity markets exhibited strong coherence with the DowJones Index. However, at the end of the sample period, no coherency was observed among the ASEAN-5 equity markets, local Covid-19 cases, and DowJones index. This study has two main contributions to the literature: First, we provide insights on equity markets’ reactions during an epidemic/pandemic crisis in the emerging markets, specifically, the ASEAN-5 countries, which is a less studied area. Second, examining the impact of the Covid-19 and DowJones Index on the ASEAN-5 equity markets using the wavelet method is a novel approach that captures both the time and frequency dimensions. The results of this study have a significant contribution to investors and regulators, particularly in navigating the new 'normal' and data-driven era.

Keywords

• ASEAN-5 countries
• Equity markets
• DowJones index
• Wavelet analysis
• Covid-19