Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Namibia: SVAR evidence

Abstract

This article investigates exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Namibia. The study covers the period of 1993:Q1 – 2011:Q4, and employed the impulse response functions and variance decompositions obtained from a structural vector autoregressive model. The results from the impulse response functions show that there is a high and long-lasting effect from changes in exchange rates to inflation in Namibia, or high exchange rate pass-through into domestic inflation. The results from the forecast error variance decompositions also reflect that changes in the price level evolve endogenously with changes in the exchange rate. The results are in agreement with the findings of the impulse response functions regarding the significant effect of the exchange rate variable on domestic prices (inflation). The results confirm an incomplete pass-through, indicating that the purchasing power parity theory does not hold, with regard to the price level, in the context of Namibia.

Keywords

• exchange rate
• short-run
• pass-through
• inflation
• structural vector autoregressive
• impulse response
• Namibia