Climate change in NE Mexico: influence of the Nort Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract

An exploratory analysis of temperature, precipitation and evaporation records, in five localities of Tamaulipas state (NE Mexico), spanning from about 30s decade of XX century until first years of the XXI, is made by means of multivaried statistical techniques. A change point is detected in 1964. By comparing the period former to this year with the period 1964-2002, a significant decrease of temperature is observed in four out of the five localities, in three ones there is a light increase of precipitation and in the another two it is greater; finally, four of them have an important decrease in evaporation. According to the Köppen´s system of climatic classification adapted to the Mexican Republic, the climate type changed in three out of the studied localities, passing from dry to warm sub-humid. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is analyzed as a possible cause of this behavior. The results suggest that the statistical methodology used is suitable for long term climate studies.

Keywords

• climate change
• exploratory analysis
• multivariate techniques
• XX century
• NAO