An Empirical Analysis of Romania’s Comovement with the Euro Zone

Abstract

In light of adopting the euro in the near future, it is important to asses to which extent the Romanian business cycle evolves in a similar fashion with that of the euro zone. The present study is an empirical investigation of the degree of business cycle synchronization between Romania and the euro area, based on macroeconomic series that capture the cyclical features of the two economies. The results indicate that the most recent period, characterized by major economic and financial turmoil, has lead to an increase of the degree of comovement between of the Romanian economy with that of the euro area.

Keywords

• co-movement
• optimum currency area
• European integration
• cohesion
• dynamic correlation.