Determination of Factors Affecting on the Iran’s Non-oil Exports: Bayesian Averaging Approach

Abstract

This paper investigates the factors affecting Iran’s non-oil export using the Bayesian model framework approach. With the estimation of over 9,600,000 regressions and using Bayesian model averaging in the framework of uncertainty model, six variables of exchange rate, gross domestic product, inflation, private sector investment, banking facilities to the industry and mining sector and instability of exchange rate were identified (i.e., they maintained their effects in presence of other variables and were significant). This indicates that we should pay more attention to these variables than others in estimation of a non oil export model

Keywords

• bayesian approach
• bayesian averaging approach
• non-oil export
• uncertainty model