AN INDEX-BASED METHOD FOR INTEGRAL ESTIMATION OF REGIONAL CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE USING FUZZY CALCULATIONS (PART 1. PROBLEM STATEMENT AND METHOD GENERIC STRUCTURE)

Abstract

Background. The study is aimed at developing well-known and designing novel models and methods for decision support in the field of security and resilient operation management of critical infrastructures and socioeconomic facilities in the Arctic region of Russian Federation. This urgent problem is especially relevant at the regional level in terms of the need to protectability heightening of critical facilities/infrastructures, cascading effects restricting of the multiple threats of various nature on higher-level systems and favorable conditions providing for mitigation of the negative consequences of influencing factors on the performance of the elements of these systems. Materials and methods. For easy understanding, the work structurally is decomposed in two parts. In the first part, a formal problem statement is given. The substantiation of mathematical apparatus for problem-solving is carried out. The generic framework of the developed method for assessment and analysis of the regional critical infrastructures resilience based on a fuzzy-set approach and expert judgements is proposed. In the second part, the efficiency Q-function computational models of the organizational and technical systems resilience, such as anticipation ability, responsiveness, recoverability and adaptability, which are the central elements of the optimization model of critical infrastructures resilience integral index, are examined. Results and conclusions. An index-based method for the integral estimation and analysis of the regional critical infrastructures resilience, based on fuzzy calculations of the level and ratio of aggregated reliability, security and robustness indices, has been developed. The method allows on basis of incomplete data to quantify systemic risks affecting the critical infrastructure resilience, performances, savings and possible losses under sampling and implementing the anti-crisis measures at all stages of the resilience management life-cycle. A distinctive feature of the method is its universality, i.e., applicability to all types of critical infrastructures. The method can be practically used by operators and analysts of regional situational centers to train and generate design decisions for counteracting the actual threats and local failures in the operation of regional critical infrastructures under uncertainty.

Keywords

• system analysis
• resilience
• security
• critical infrastructure
• integral performance index
• expert judgement
• fuzzy calculations